The Value Gap: Why Skubal is the Play Over Yamamoto for Game 1
AI-generated image · Bay Street Wire
Market sentiment is leaning toward the name value of the 2025 World Series MVP, but the numbers favor the Dodgers' southpaw starter for the NLDS opener.
In the betting markets, name recognition often drives the price, and few names carry more weight right now than Yoshinobu Yamamoto. As the 2025 World Series Most Valuable Player, Yamamoto is the Dodgers' ace, but as MLB.com first reported, the numbers suggest the smart money should be looking elsewhere for Game 1 of the National League Division Series against the Braves.
According to reporting from MLB.com, the Dodgers expect to name Tarik Skubal as the starter for Saturday's opener. While the team has not officially confirmed the decision, the analytical justification for starting Skubal over Yamamoto is clear: the Braves' offensive struggles against left-handed pitching. MLB.com reports that the Braves recorded a .696 OPS against southpaws during the regular season, a notable dip from the .730 OPS they posted against right-handers.
From a prop-betting perspective, Skubal offers a higher floor based on recent performance and matchup data. After being acquired from the Tigers in a blockbuster trade before the deadline, Skubal posted a 2.61 ERA across 10 regular-season starts for Los Angeles. Furthermore, his postseason pedigree is established; MLB.com notes he recorded a 2.04 ERA over six postseason starts with Detroit, although Saturday will mark his first home playoff start.
Opinion: The market is likely overvaluing Yamamoto's presence in the Game 1 conversation, but the Dodgers are playing the percentages. By opting for Skubal, they are attacking a specific weakness in the Braves' lineup. The risk associated with Yamamoto is not just about the matchup, but about availability. MLB.com reports that Yamamoto has never started a game on fewer than five days' rest in his career, meaning a Game 1 start would likely limit him to just one appearance in the NLDS.
There is a path for Yamamoto to feature later in the series. MLB.com reports that Yamamoto threw simulated innings during a closed workout on Wednesday. This suggests he could be positioned for Game 3, especially if the Dodgers utilize another left-hander, Blake Snell, for Game 2.
While the allure of the ace is strong, the metrics point to Skubal as the high-value play for the opener. The combination of the Braves' .696 OPS against lefties and Skubal's consistent 2.04 postseason ERA makes the southpaw the statistically superior choice for Game 1.