The Skubal Market: Mets Emerge as Favorites Amid Potential Record-Breaking Deal
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AI-generated image · Bay Street Wire · Based on a photo by slgckgc (CC BY 2.0, Wikimedia Commons)
With the Dodgers facing term constraints and the Cubs unlikely to bid, New York's aggressive budget puts them in the driver's seat for the ace left-hander.
Tarik Skubal enters free agency as the premier arm on the market, and the bidding war could redefine pitcher valuations. As MLB.com first reported, and according to MLB Network insider Jon Heyman, the New York Mets are currently the favorites to sign the two-time Cy Young Award winner, edging out the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Mets are heavily focused on starting pitching after signing Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765 million deal and seeing Bo Bichette opt into his contract, which reduced their interest in Teruaki Sato, as reported by The Athletic. Skubal could potentially shatter existing contract records, including Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 12-year, $325 million guarantee and the $43.33 million average annual value (AAV) held by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
For the Dodgers, who traded three prospects to acquire Skubal at the deadline, the financial structure is a hurdle. The Athletic's Katie Woo reports Los Angeles is unlikely to exceed a 12-year term, though they may attempt a shorter deal with a high AAV, similar to their four-year, $240 million agreement with Kyle Tucker.
Other suitors include the Phillies, Giants, Blue Jays, and the New York Yankees, the latter of whom ESPN's Kiley McDaniel says are "thinking about" a push. McDaniel also identified the Angels, White Sox, and Padres as "sleepers." Meanwhile, despite ESPN's Jeff Passan reporting that the Chicago Cubs "badly" want Skubal to address rotation needs, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic notes the Cubs appear unlikely to enter the bidding war.