Public Safety Dominates Tightening Toronto Mayoral Race

A new poll from Mainstreet Research indicates a tightening race for Toronto's mayor, with public safety emerging as a primary driver for voters. According to the data released Friday, 38.1% of respondents would re-elect Mayor Olivia Chow, while Beaches East-York Coun. Brad Bradford follows with 31.4% support. Former Conservative MP and federal cabinet minister Chris Alexander holds 8% support.

Reporting from CBC Toronto and CityNews Toronto shows that more than eight in ten surveyed respondents consider crime and public safety to be somewhat, very, or extremely important in their voting decision. Specifically, 51.8% described the issue as "either extremely or very important." Concerns include assault, robbery, gun and gang violence, fraud, scams, break-ins, home invasions, vehicle theft, and disorder on public transit. Roughly 62.5% of respondents believe crime has increased over the last two years.

Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, stated that the race remains "too close to call" and emphasized that the ability of candidates to effectively communicate their positions on safety is critical. This perception of danger persists despite data cited by CBC Toronto showing the city has had 57 shootings so far this year, the second-lowest number for this point in the year in two decades. Additionally, a Liaison Strategies survey found Toronto has the largest gap among 15 Canadian cities between official crime-severity ranks and public perception.

Zeus Eden, a spokesperson for Olivia Chow, told CBC Toronto that the mayor has made "historic investments" in public safety since her 2023 election. The mayoral election is scheduled for Oct. 26.