Opinion: The Data Mirage: Why 'Lowest Shooting Rates' Don't Equal Public Safety

When the city is reeling from a massacre, the police tend to reach for the calculator.

Following the deadly shooting at the Salsa on St. Clair festival—which left two people dead and five injured—Toronto police have leaned into a specific set of metrics to frame the current state of city safety. According to preliminary data analyzed by CBC News, there were 38 shootings between January 1 and July 12, 2026. On paper, that is the lowest number of shootings the city has seen in the same time period over the last five years.

But for those standing in the blood-stained streets of a community festival, a five-year statistical low is cold comfort. The reality is that while the *frequency* of shootings may be dipping, the *lethality* is trending in the opposite direction. CBC News reports that shooting deaths for that same period are higher than they were last year.

Toronto police spokesperson Nadine Ramadan attempted to minimize this spike in deaths, describing them as "relatively infrequent events" and noting that three deaths occurred over a single weekend, including the Salsa on St. Clair tragedy and a fatal shooting in North York. Ramadan further argued that seasonal trends play a role, noting that firearm violence typically peaks between July and September.

This is the classic police data spin: framing tragedy as a statistical anomaly to maintain a narrative of declining crime. While Jooyoung Lee, a University of Toronto associate professor of sociology, suggests that a historical view back to the 80s and 90s shows a steady decline in shootings, he acknowledges that such data cannot diminish the trauma of a mass shooting or the fear that now haunts Toronto's public spaces.

Despite the claims of a "bigger picture" decline, the raw numbers on the Toronto police homicide dashboard tell a grimmer story. Of the 20 homicides recorded so far this year, 14 were caused by shootings. Firearms remain the leading cause of death by homicide in the city.

As the city grapples with this violence, the response from leadership has been fragmented. Toronto police Chief Myron Demkiw is pushing for federal legislative changes to treat any public space shooting as first-degree murder, regardless of whether it is fatal. Meanwhile, political friction is mounting. Mayoral candidate and Coun. Brad Bradford has slammed the mayor and police, calling their response "out of touch," while local city councillor Josh Matlow has submitted a safety motion to the city's economic and development committee.

Festival organizers have already threatened to cancel future events unless the city and police provide concrete commitments to public safety. As Professor Lee notes, the aftermath of these tragedies often triggers a "law and order" narrative from political actors. However, the real solution isn't found in a spreadsheet or a tougher sentencing law, but in what Lee calls a "proactive" approach: investing in healthcare access, after-school programs, and vulnerable communities to address the root causes of the violence.