Data vs. Dread: TPS Claims Shooting Lows Amid Festival Tragedy
AI-generated image · Bay Street Wire
Toronto Police point to five-year lows in shooting frequency, but rising death tolls and public outcry suggest a gap between statistics and safety.
The Toronto Police Service (TPS) is leaning on historical data to frame the city's safety landscape, even as the community reels from a deadly shooting at the Salsa on St. Clair festival that left two dead and five injured.
According to reporting by CBC Toronto, preliminary police data analyzed by the outlet shows that between January 1 and July 12, 2026, there were 38 shootings. This figure represents the lowest number of shootings recorded for the same period over the last five years. However, the data reveals a more troubling trend regarding lethality: shooting deaths for that same window are higher than they were last year.
Toronto police spokesperson Nadine Ramadan addressed the rise in fatalities in an email to CBC Toronto, describing shooting deaths as "relatively infrequent events" where a single incident can heavily skew the metrics. Ramadan noted that three deaths occurred over one weekend—including the two at Salsa on St. Clair and a fatal shooting in North York on Friday—which significantly impacted the total. Ramadan further cautioned that firearm violence typically peaks between July and September.
Despite the claim of lower overall shooting frequency, firearms remain the primary driver of murder in the city. CBC Toronto reports that the TPS homicide dashboard lists 20 homicides so far this year, 14 of which were caused by shootings.
The disconnect between police statistics and public perception has sparked a political firestorm. CBC Toronto reports that festival organizers have threatened to cancel future events unless the city and police provide concrete safety commitments. Local city councillor Josh Matlow has submitted a safety motion to the city's economic and development committee, while mayoral candidate and Coun. Brad Bradford used a video on X to describe the responses from the mayor and police as "out of touch."
In response to the violence, Toronto police Chief Myron Demkiw is calling for federal legislative changes to ensure any shooting in a public space is treated as first-degree murder, regardless of whether the victim survives.
Jooyoung Lee, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Toronto, told CBC Radio's Metro Morning that while historical data shows a steady decline in shootings since the 1980s and 90s, these numbers do not erase the trauma of victims. Lee suggested that "proactive" investments in healthcare, after-school programs, and vulnerable communities are necessary to address the root causes of violence, rather than relying solely on "law and order" narratives that often emerge after such tragedies.