Opinion: Statistics Aren't Safety: The Failure of Tactical Planning at Toronto Festivals

Toronto Police Chief Myron Demkiw is leaning on a specific set of numbers to frame the city's safety narrative. During a Monday press conference, Demkiw stated that shootings in the city have dropped by more than 26 percent compared to the same period in 2025. But as any beat reporter will tell you, a spreadsheet is not a security plan, and the blood spilled at the Salsa on St. Clair festival proves that statistical declines are cold comfort to those caught in the crossfire.

On Saturday, a scene of celebration turned into a crime scene when gunfire erupted at the Latin culture festival. As Global News Toronto first reported, two men—who police say knew each other and were targeted—were killed, and several others were injured. The violence was so brazen it forced the cancellation of the event's second day. Police estimated that 13,000 people were in attendance when the shooting occurred.

Chief Demkiw has since called for tougher penalties, suggesting that shootings in public spaces that cause death should be a pathway to first-degree murder charges. He has also pushed for continued investment in police resources. However, this focus on reactionary punishment ignores the immediate tactical failure that allowed a public festival to become a shooting gallery.

Public officials are now facing a reckoning over their perceived indifference. Aldo Di Felice, president of TLN Media Group Inc., a key sponsor of the midtown festival, suggested Mayor Olivia Chow and Chief Demkiw downplayed the shooting. Di Felice has threatened to withdraw support for the event unless city officials provide concrete commitments to enhance security on and around St. Clair Avenue. His statement was blunt: TLN Media Group Inc. refuses to subject its people and community to environments where officials "resist the community’s calls to do better."

While Mayor Chow has insisted that criminals will not stop Toronto’s tradition of street festivals and has urged the federal government to curb the flow of illegal guns from the U.S., the city's response remains vague. The city claims it is "committed to reviewing its approach" and intends to support the creation of a Toronto Festivals Association to bolster safety.

This "review" comes as other organizers scramble to fill the security void. Tony Pethakas, chair of GreekTown on the Danforth, noted that organizers of the Taste of the Danforth have spent months developing a "comprehensive" safety plan with private security and police. Pethakas argues that eliminating large gatherings is not an effective prevention strategy, but the burden of safety is increasingly falling on organizers rather than the city's tactical leadership.

Ervin Waller, a criminology professor at the University of Ottawa, suggests the city is spending "very large" sums on reactionary law enforcement while ignoring early intervention strategies. The reality is that while the police may be winning the battle of the statistics, they are losing the battle for public trust. When 13,000 people are gathered in a public square, a 26 percent decline in city-wide shootings is a meaningless metric. What matters is the failure to prevent a targeted execution in the middle of a community celebration.