Betting the Bottom: Ottawa's 20-Game Skid Hits Contrarian Territory
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With the Redblacks winless and Hamilton eliminated, the numbers suggest a statistical anomaly that may be ripe for a fade.
From a betting and analytics perspective, the Ottawa Redblacks are currently the ultimate contrarian play. As first reported by Sportsnet, Ottawa has now lost 20 consecutive games dating back to last season, a streak that stands as the second-longest in the history of top-level Canadian football.
While a 0-14 record typically screams 'avoid,' the underlying metrics suggest the Redblacks are trending toward a correction. Since McLeod Bethel-Thompson took over under center, Ottawa has found a sudden offensive spark, scoring 69 points over their last two contests. Bethel-Thompson has produced 797 passing yards and seven touchdowns in that span, with Justin Hardy contributing 21 catches for 227 yards and two scores to secure his fourth straight 1,000-yard season.
However, the Redblacks' front office appears to be prioritizing future assets over immediate results. Sportsnet reports that Ottawa traded kicker Brett Lauther—who hit 32-of-34 field goals—to Saskatchewan for a 2027 fifth-round draft pick. General Manager Dinwiddie described the move as a "business decision," noting the team likely couldn't match Lauther's salary requirements. Additionally, Ottawa released defensive backs Christian Matthew and Adrian Frye earlier this week. The team will now rely on Paul Geelen, who makes his CFL debut on Friday.
On the other side of the ledger, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (4-11) are also struggling. Hamilton was officially knocked out of playoff contention following a 37-35 defeat by the Edmonton Elks. Tiger-Cats coach Scott Milanovich told Sportsnet that he doesn't view his team as being in a significantly different position than Ottawa, noting that both teams have struggled to close out tight games.
***OPINION:*** *From a value standpoint, the 20-game losing streak is a statistical outlier that has likely pushed Ottawa's price into 'too good to ignore' territory. When you pair Bethel-Thompson's recent offensive surge with a Hamilton team that has no post-season incentive, the math supports a contrarian fade of the streak.*
Analytical focal points for Friday's matchup include the clash between Bethel-Thompson and a Hamilton defense that allows a league-low 13 completions of 30+ yards. Meanwhile, Hamilton will lean on quarterback Harrison Frost, who has seven touchdowns over his last three games, and Kurleigh Gittens Jr., who has scored in three consecutive outings. Ottawa will counter with Kalil Pimpleton, who leads the league with 2,623 combined yards.