The Billion-Dollar Question: Will Ford's Tariff Lifeline Reach the Street or Just the Suite?

Walking the pavement of Bay Street, you see the anxiety in the eyes of the small-business owners. They aren't worried about quarterly earnings calls; they are worried about payroll on Friday. With the U.S.-Canada trade war escalating, that anxiety has turned into a full-blown crisis.

Last Thursday, Premier Doug Ford stepped to the podium at a Toronto Region Board of Trade event and offered a hand. As CBC Toronto first reported, Ford announced that Ontario is expanding eligibility for financing programs to protect businesses and workers caught in the crossfire of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade actions. It is a necessary move. As Ford himself put it, we simply cannot rely on President Trump, and the goal is to help hard-hit sectors "keep their lights on."

On the surface, the commitment is massive. We are talking about the $1-billion Protect Ontario Financing Program (POFP) and the Ontario Together Trade Fund (OTTF). These are the tools the province is using to fight back against a wave of protectionism that includes import bans on Canadian dairy, motorcycles, and certain alcohol products, as well as additional 50 per cent tariffs.

But here is where my street-level skepticism kicks in. To qualify for POFP loans—intended to cover costs like utilities and payroll—a business must have at least $2 million in annual revenue and employ at least 10 full-time employees in the province. For the mom-and-pop shop or the boutique exporter, that is a mountain. By setting the bar at $2 million, the province is effectively telling the smallest players they aren't "big enough" to be saved. While Minister of Economic Development Vic Fedeli claims this will build an economy that can withstand challenges for "decades to come," I wonder who is actually being included in that vision.

Then we have the OTTF, aimed at small and medium-sized businesses reshoring supply chains or expanding interprovincial trade. Requirements are slightly more accessible—at least three years of operation and five full-time employees. But what about the micro-business? The province says some may still be considered if they demonstrate "exceptional benefit to Ontario," but "exceptional benefit" is a subjective term, often decided by the people with the best lobbyists.

The sectors being hit are diverse. Starting September 15, 50 per cent tariffs will impact those dealing in mattresses, furniture, paper products, motorboats, certain metal products like steel and aluminum, and certain dairy and animal skin products. By September 29, import bans will hit motorcycles with engine capacities exceeding 800 cc, as well as various Canadian alcoholic beverages and dairy-related products.

When the province announces a $1-billion program, the headline sounds like a victory. But if the eligibility requirements filter out the very businesses that define our local economy, then the money isn't reaching the street—it's staying in the boardroom. "Sticking together" should mean more than just protecting the companies that already have the scale to survive.