Separating the Signal from the Noise: Which of Toronto's 17 Signings Actually Matter?
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Jordan Pace argues that while the Blue Jays' volume of signatures is high, the 2026 window depends on a select few, leaving the rest as organizational filler.
*(Opinion)*
When a front office announces a wave of signings, the instinct is to look at the total number. On Thursday, the Toronto Blue Jays announced they had signed 17 players from the 2026 MLB first-year player draft, according to Sportsnet. To the casual observer, that looks like a comprehensive build. To those of us tracking the pipeline, however, the volume is a distraction.
In the quest to open a competitive window for 2026, we have to be honest about the math of the draft: not every signature moves the needle. Most of these deals are simply organizational filler—necessary bodies to fill out the minor league rosters—while only a handful of these prospects possess the ceiling to actually impact the big-league club.
If we are identifying who actually matters in this group, the conversation begins and ends with Cole Carlon. As reported by Sportsnet, Carlon is a 21-year-old left-handed pitcher out of Arizona State who was taken 39th overall in the first round. In any draft class, the first-round pick is the only player with a mandated expectation of impact. Carlon is the centerpiece of this group, and he is the only player in this signing wave who can be viewed as a foundational piece for the 2026 timeline.
Beyond Carlon, the value drops off precipitously. While the Blue Jays signed players like Ryan Cooney (a shortstop taken 103rd overall in the third round) and Will Brick (a catcher taken 131st overall in the fourth round), these are the types of bets that often vanish into the depths of the system. According to the list provided by Sportsnet, the club also signed Nolan Higgins (RHP, 5th round), Gable Mitchell (2B, 6th round), and Dean West (OF, 7th round).
Are these players talented? Certainly. But are they 'needle-movers'? Likely not. When you look at the later rounds—the likes of Jake Bennet (C, 8th), Joey Urban (OF, 9th), Bryce Chance (LF, 10th), and Brayden Martin (3B, 11th)—you aren't looking at future stars; you are looking at organizational depth. The same applies to the late-round pitching arms like Santi Garcia (LHP, 12th), Mathis Nayral (RHP, 13th), Connor Kelley (RHP, 14th), Oliver De La Torre (RHP, 15th), Carson Cormier (RHP, 16th), and Landon Waters (RHP, 17th).
Then there is the 20th-round selection, Eddie Rosado (CF), and a group of eight non-drafted free agents (NDFAs) who were also signed on Thursday. Sportsnet identifies these NDFAs as Reese Bassinger (RHP), Dax Darhe (RHP), Ryan Franden (3B), Devon King (RHP), Isaiah Magdaleno (RHP), Gavin Seebold (RHP), Ian Taylor (CF), and Isaac Williams (RHP).
Let's be clear: the probability of any of these NDFAs or late-round picks becoming a regular contributor by 2026 is slim. They are the supporting cast, the players who provide competition in spring training and fill the gaps in the low minors. They are essential for the health of the organization, but they are not the reason the Blue Jays believe they can compete in the near future.
If the Blue Jays want to maximize their 2026 window, the pressure is entirely on Cole Carlon to develop into a rotation mainstay. The other 16 drafted players and eight NDFAs are essentially a lottery. While it's easy to get swept up in the excitement of a large signing class, the reality is that the 'pipeline' is often a trickle. In this case, the trickle is Carlon, and everyone else is just along for the ride.