Polls Show Liberal Support Surging Amid U.S. Trade Conflict

The escalating trade war with the United States appears to be consolidating support for the Liberal Party, as first reported by CityNews Toronto.

**What happened**

An Abacus Data survey conducted from September 4 to 9, 2026, finds that the Liberals hold a 14-point lead over the Conservatives, the largest margin since Mark Carney became leader. If an election were held today, 47% of committed voters would support the Liberals, while 33% would vote for the Conservatives. Other party support includes the NDP at 8%, the Bloc Quebecois at 7%, and the Green Party at 3%.

The surge follows a series of political developments, including the Liberals sweeping three federal byelections on August 31 and the federal government implementing counter-tariffs on nearly $25 billion of U.S. imports on September 8.

**Why it matters**

David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, told CityNews Toronto that the political environment has shifted in favor of Prime Minister Mark Carney since trade negotiations with the U.S. collapsed. Coletto noted that Canadians largely support the decision to reject the U.S. offer, rallying behind a government narrative focused on resilience, independence, and sovereignty.

Public sentiment is heavily influenced by views of the U.S. administration. The survey found that 46% of Canadians identify the U.S. administration as their top concern, surpassed only by the rising cost of living. Furthermore, 82% of respondents hold a negative impression of Donald Trump, while 68% believe the Liberals are the best party to handle the Trump administration.

Fifty-nine percent of respondents approve of the work being done by Carney's government, and 57% approve of the government's handling of the U.S. relationship. Prime Minister Carney holds a positive net impression of +27, whereas Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has a net impression of -13.