NHL Salary Cap Projections Signal Looming Financial Explosion

As Sportsnet first reported, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman recently warned that the league is managing salary cap increases to avoid driving teams "crazy" by creating massive jumps for free agents. Bettman indicated that the cap is currently functioning to recapture levels lost during years of a flat cap, estimating it will take approximately two more years before the cap rises at the same rate as revenue growth.

Despite these efforts to create a "smooth increase," Sportsnet projections—verified by league, team, and NHL Players’ Association sources—suggest the salary cap ceiling could reach $150 million USD by 2029-30. This would represent a 44 percent increase over this season's $104 million ceiling.

Sportsnet reports that this season's cap is being kept artificially low. While the league's projected revenue is approximately $7.7 billion USD (based on internal projections of $7.1 billion USD plus $1 billion CAD), the unadjusted salary cap ceiling for this season would have been approximately $128 million. The current lower figure is a result of a two-year "lag" formula established during Collective Bargaining negotiations following the pandemic.

This suppression of salaries has led to players being underpaid relative to their 50 percent share of hockey-related revenue. Multiple sources told Sportsnet that players are tracking to receive a top-up payment of seven percent above their contract face value for this season. Consequently, some teams and agents are already projecting future increases, which Sportsnet notes is why player salaries crossed the $20 million per year threshold last summer.

Bettman has advised teams that the projection for the 2028-29 season is $127.5 million, which would be a $14 million increase in a single summer. Sportsnet suggests the NHL and NHLPA may renegotiate next season's $113.5 million projection upward to further smooth the transition.