Fiscal Chicken: Brad Bradford's Tax Cut Fantasy Risks Toronto's Foundation
AI-generated image · Bay Street Wire
OPINION: By pledging to scrap land transfer taxes and freeze property levies, Brad Bradford is offering a seductive but dangerous gamble with the city's solvency.
Let's be clear: this is an opinion piece. As a watchdog for City Hall, I have seen my fair share of campaign promises, but as CBC Toronto first reported, the current trajectory of Brad Bradford’s mayoral bid is moving beyond optimistic into the realm of fiscal recklessness.
Bradford is playing a dangerous game of fiscal chicken. He is promising a buffet of tax cuts and freezes while the city's infrastructure needs remain desperate. He has pledged to scrap the land transfer tax for homes sold for $1.1 million or less—a move his campaign estimates would cost the city approximately $300 million annually. Given that the total land transfer tax is worth roughly $850 million based on the 2026 budget, Bradford is proposing to slice 35 per cent of that specific revenue stream away.
Bradford argues the policy is targeted, as it applies only to principal residences, leaving landlords and investment properties—who make up 29 per cent of purchases—to pay the full amount. But where is the money?
To plug the $300 million hole, Bradford suggests extending the timeline for infrastructure payments and creating a public water company to pay out dividends. Incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow has already called this an "imaginary dividend," characterizing the plan as irresponsible, unfunded, and a threat to the capital budget.
It isn't just the land transfer tax; Bradford has also pledged to freeze property taxes for one year and cut water bills by 25 per cent. While he accuses Chow of "status quo thinking" for voting down previous tax breaks, his own solutions rely on "potential" dividends and deferred debts.
Other candidates are taking a more measured approach. Candidate Chris Alexander believes the land transfer tax is too high but insists on broader reforms at City Hall before tackling the tax itself.
Bradford's platform is designed for a campaign brochure, not a balance sheet. He is betting that voters will prioritize short-term savings over the long-term solvency of the city's infrastructure. If we prioritize temporary relief over capital health, we will preside over a city that can no longer afford to maintain itself.